Out to Lunch

With the recession in full swing, the past few months have been politically interesting. Especially with the jump on bailouts and structured payouts to banks, interest groups and car companies, everything in Ottawa is a "hot" topic.

I am not a proponent for bailouts, nor payouts to industries, even though I lost my job in the mining sector just 2 months ago. I feel giving money doesn't create the jobs, CREATING the jobs is quicker, faster, and with the money multiplier effect, those employees spend their wage at other businesses. Basic economics.

But with the opposition parties screaming for money for jobs, money for...well everything, they never really came out with an action plan, which is, what I think, the reason the Liberals backed out of their coalition with the NDP and BLOC. They never really had a plan, just a vision of a non-Conservative Canada. Now, I'm a liberal lefty, and I support that vision, but not at the expense of a stable economy in times of hardship. To play political games during the greatest economic crisis of...well anyone's time, would be political suicide. And it was a good move for Dion to leave (thank God), and for the Liberals to back out of the coalition.

So I read today's Globe and found this article, about Layton and his remarks regarding accelerated projects the Conservatives and the Provincial Governments are working on. And he states his worry that the increased time lines, to speed up monies for jobs, would hurt the environment.

Now I do support the NDP to some extent, but to preach for months about jobs, and having press conferences with union workers, construction workers behind you, you think this "new" message is a good thing? Protecting jobs, getting the money to the people fast, putting people first....the past few months have been rather "worker" focused. And to then say the funding has to be slowed down, cause the environment is being affected, I think is ill-advised.

Most projects for funding have been in process and shovel ready for years. With all the environmental studies finished. We need the money in the economy NOW, not a year down the road. If you preach about protecting jobs, stand behind your social mantra.

Well well, looks like 2029 will be rather interesting...

2029 will be a year to remember. Recently NASA reported that the Apophis asteroid had a 1 in 45,000 chance of hitting earth, and that it would pass by roughly 32,000km from earth. Now this 13 year old boy from Germany, redid the calculations to take in account of our satellites in orbit which are ringed around our planet roughly up to 35,000km away. What his findings were, the 13 year old kid, is that if the asteroid hits a satellite, a 1 in 450 chance, then it will alter the course of the asteroid and send it crashing to earth in 2036. Or it could cut close in 2029. I think it would be safe to say I'm in favor of missiles in space, how about you? I love this part of the article, how blunt it is:

"If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036.

Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.

The shockwaves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, whilst creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely.

The 13-year old made his discovery as part of a regional science competition for which he submitted a project entitled: "Apophis -- The Killer Astroid."

The R Word

Well after seeing most of my investments being hit hard this week after the massive 900 point slide over three days on the TSX, I think it is actually starting to settle in my mind that we could be seeing the start of a recession. With over 80% of our trade going to the US, economists who argue that our economy and housing market is strong and we will ride the "low pressure system" from the south, should take a second look at our financial picture.

It is simple; The American People are losing money at an alarming rate. Jobs are being cut, housing prices are dropping, bankruptcies are a record high, credit card debt is the highest it has ever been....the list goes on. The only saving grace these days in the US is they are still at war in Iraq and as they scale back there, they will just move their troops over to Afghanistan to replace the Canadians who are leaving in 2009. America has always been a War economy. Their big "break" was of course WWII and corporate America made a killing with their merchant shipping fleet, which of course most of those who made a fortune have since "apologized". I highly doubt Blackwater will even say they are sorry for being in Iraq, no matter how many they kill or buy out.

So here we have this false economy feeding the money market in the States and what does Bush Jr do to try and save his families political legacy? Hum...throw money at it. Well you can't stop a leak in the hull by stuffing paper money into it. You have to get the boat out of the water. 1.45 billion dollars a day is already thrown at the economy each day, so you think another 397 million a day into the economy will save it? Too little, too late. Domestic Capital investment should have been his response, infrastructure mega projects, heck it worked for Truman. And any Keynesian would agree.

Now what will happen to Canada? That of course is the story these days in Canadian Media..what does this mean to our bottom line. If the purchasing power is in decay down south, will that erode our trade-train? Well I will go out on a limb here and say what I think:

(1) Most of our trade, besides the manufacturing sector and car sector, is in power, water and commodities. Of course we will be hit by this storm, no question, especially in Quebec and Ontario who trade manufactured goods, but America will always need our power supply, our uranium, our water and our oil. And the commodities index has been strong due to the fact that it is a "safe-haven" for investors. People will ALWAYS need oil, gas, minerals.

(2) Our housing market and land values are strong...still. I think they will of course be hit, but not to the tune of billions a day lost like the States. Maybe in some regions, like Ontario-South and the East will drop faster and deeper than the West. In the West though we have the problem of home owners over-extending themselves with high mortgages and we could see an increase in default mortgages. This is a result of the super-heated economy here in BC and Alberta. I mean who can afford a 340,000 mortgage for a studio apartment these days....argh.

(3) Canada already has an economy that has Federal programs and public capital involved at all levels of the economy. This will aid on our fight against a recession, as people start to lose money, they still do not have to worry about health care, school for their kids, increases in utilities, as most of these are moderated by the state. In America, you lose your job, you lose your health care, then a family of 4 has to fork out 2600 a month for health care coverage. Hum I think I have that lying around for a rainy day...

So yes we will be hit, yes we will see some home owners default, but we will weather this storm. I think that increased public spending would be a good response, and reduced business costs for the manufacturing sector (tax reduction) would help "shore up our dam". And I believe we really need to look at our trade networks, we need to diversify and expand our market share to other countries in the EU and Asia. This would offset the lower trade we will see into the States.

What do you think? Are you going to be ok? Do you save 40% of your income each month?

Note to my fellow classmates at SFU: I will not buy you beer...you're not of age!

Well, my first full week of school has just ended, and I am breathing a sigh of relief. There is something to be said about going straight to a degree program BEFORE you start living your life. For one thing (and anyone in high school or first year university take note) you DON'T remember anything from high school after 10 years. I have a really great Math professor, and during one of his lectures a few days ago he was working on a function of some sort, and paused to tell the class: "so you do this and then that, but I don't have to explain, you all learned that in grade 11". Note to my teacher, grade 11 was...um let me see if my math is right...11 years ago???

Now I did return for 1 semester at Thompson Rivers University in Kamloops 2 years ago, and like this semester now, it sure is a culture shock. After living on my own, running restaurants, and now running Exploration Mining projects, I notice I have a VERY different outlook on life than the rest of the student body. I had a rather funny thing happen in one of my classes yesterday which involved a few other students. 3 students were involved in a very serious conversation beside me, during our break in class, about doing their first loads of...Laundry. Oh the trails and tribulations of fabric softener and oh no...the dryer may not dry all your cloths 100%. But we all were at their point, just for me I felt one of my first and probably not last moments of feeling "old".

But hey, my last 10 years were a lot of fun. I think I made good choices in my life, and I don't regret finishing my degree before I seriously entered the workforce. My time with Milestone's was great, met some amazing people, and of course the last 4 years in the Mining Exploration industry has been unreal. Plus all the traveling I have done to China, Chile, Mexico, England and the States I think was very rewarding.

So to all my 18 year old classmates: I will not buy you beer. Sorry. I will however ask for your help with my homework from time to time!

Chile Rocks!!

Well, here I am, in Chile, and loving every moment. After arriving in Santiago on the 21 of October, we drove to Illapel, which is 4 hours north east of the city. We drove through a small town called Los Vilos, which is right on the ocean-wow the Chilean coast is so cool. Chile in fact has blown all my expectations right out of the water. Chile is a very modern, very clean (for South American standards), and the people are truly amazing. Man I am rambling.

Santiago was great. 5 million people in a vast city of towers, new and old, nestled up against some of the most formittable mountain peaks around-the Andes. People were very nice, the weather was sunny and hot, and the smog was low, which I hear is very rare.

Illapel is a small town of 22,000, and it rocks. Known for their avocadoes and copper, Illapel is the centre for farming, ranching and mining in the central region of Chile. Our property I am working on is an hour outside this town, and is right up against the Andes mountains-which are unreal to look at in person. The picture above is of me beside a cactus, and the one below is of me looking out to the Andes for the first time.

The high desert region of Chile is breath-taking. The wild life, the plants, and man is it hot. 35C everyday and sunny!! A nice change from Vanocuver weather! I have seen countless Iguanas, Road-Runner birds, stick-bugs, butterflies, and of course the cactus, wild flowers.....man the desert is amazing down here. It almost feels like I am on another planet.

The high desert area is home to a handfull of people, who live out their lives farming and ranching the desert. Countless goats, sheep, cattle, horses and burrows roam the desert in open claims, and we have 2 local guides who help us each day, showing us the roads into our property. We have all become great friends with them, and they invited us one day to go to their rodeo! A Chilean rodeo! Picture below:

Will talk more later, but I am having a blast, and will post more photos later!

Polish up your golf clubs boys!

Well there it is folks, the Ducks ended the Nucks playoff run in Game 5 tonight. Overall the Nucks were outplayed, outchecked and were really out of the game, sad to see such and bitter ending to what could have been a great series. Showing up in the final 9 minutes of the 3rd period while relying on your goalie for the other 51 minutes is pathetic and really shows that the best team did in fact win this series.

Going into this series, the Nucks were of course considered the underdogs, but to have such and overall poor performance by your top players during the entire series, it really is no suprise they lost. You can't win the Stanley Cup by relying on your goalie, you have to score goals, especially on the power plays.

Well good luck to Ottawa!!!!! BRING THE CUP HOME TO CANADA!!!!

Canadian Jailed for Life in China..Political nightmare ensues !

Does this man look like a terrorist? Well looks aren't really a great indicator for a terrorist, but the Chinese Government says this Canadian is and he will spend the rest of his life behind bars. Sentenced today in Chinese Court, Huseyin Celil, a Canadian as of 2005, was a member of Western China's Muslim Uigur minority, an "illegal" political group under the Communist regime. He fled China to Uzbekistan in 2001 and then made his way to Canada, where he lived until 2006. In 2006 he had to return to Uzbekistan for a family matter and was arrested by the police there, who then deported him not to Canada, but to CHINA!

Now the "he said she said" starts between Canada and China, with China declaring Celil a terrorist and Canada demanding evidence of terrorism and basically evidence of ANY wrong doing. Canada claims Celil was and is tortured and wrongfully detained without just cause. Plus China has not allowed any Canadian official or legal council to see Celil, which are both illegal in the view of world law and UN policy. Now China views demonstrations of human rights and political parties not in line with Communist regulations, illegal, but in Canada this is rather the opposite. And this is what Celil was doing back in the 1990's and was jailed for it, but broke out of jail and fled China to Canada. China also claims he helped assassinate a political leader yet refuse to give Canadian officials any evidence of this act.

Today Peter McKay, announced a formal protest in Celil's defence, and urges China to comply with Canada's request of evidence, just cause and visitation by legal council and Canadian Embassy workers:

"We call upon the government of China to investigate these claims promptly and impartially, and to ensure that Mr. Celil's rights are adequately protected,." Mr. MacKay said.

Mr. McKay also sent harsh words to China for their response and rather lack of it saying that Canada would review the foreign Embassy policies in China, meaning Canada would look ways of political protest as in trade or travel. China of course responded with an attack against Canada saying "[we] should stay out of China's domestic issues".

Even if Celil's crimes of murder are true or that he broke Chinese law, his human rights have been violated and his legal rights as a Canadian have been taken away illegally. I really hope this situation calms itself down and the Chinese give Canada some sort of positive response, rather than making this turn into an international trade war. China is a very opinionated nation and Canada must uphold the rule of law. Our industry and China's both rely on each other, but more importantly, the USA also relies on both of us. Having an unstable trade network between the 3 nations would bring about a global crisis.